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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.